Nuclear Security and Strategic Analyses Dr Marko Beljac

Has Afghanistan Turned Into a War of Attrition?

For President Obama Afghanistan is staring to resemble the BP oil spill. It's looking like a real PR disaster for the Obama administration. Everybody is focusing on the extraordinary bust up between General McChrystal and the Obama White House following leaks of a forthcoming interview that the General gave Rolling Stone magazine. That interview was a real shocker.

If I remember correctly the White House replaced General McKiernan because he was seen as a latter day General McClellan. General McChrystal was seen as more of a gung ho commander. It looks like Obama made a big mistake in going for a wild card like McChrystal. Obama appointed him after sacking McKiernan and now he has to wear him.

But there is more happening on the Afghan front than this Korea like spat between the commander in chief and his theatre commander. For example Richard Holbrooke just visited Marjah, which seems to have been a disaster in itself. It looks as if the Osprey helicopter carrying Holbrooke came under Taliban small arms fire. Recall that Marjah was supposed to have been pacified

...According to ABC News, Taliban gunmen tried to shoot down the Osprey. Several suicide bombings were carried out after his departure, the report said.

Holbrooke was visiting Marjah for a first-hand assessment of US- led NATO efforts to take over a Taliban-controlled region that they had hoped would set an example for tougher battles to follow.

Troops have met with stiff resistance, which has delayed plans to take on the Taliban stronghold of Kandahar province this summer. Holbrooke was also to visit Kandahar...

Much more serious than these political issues is the status of Pakistan army counterinsurgency operations along the border with Afghanistan. According to a RAND Corp study

...PAKISTAN HAS failed to develop an effective counter-insurgency strategy, undermining efforts to tackle militants who roam the Afghan border, according to a new study by security analysts.

A report by the Rand Corporation, a non-profit research group frequently used by the Pentagon, concludes that Pakistan’s army and frontier corps have failed to hold territory regained from insurgents...

The Pakistani army is clearing insurgents from places like the Swat valley and Bajaur agency ,but the Government is finding it tough to hold ground and build alternative political, economic and social structures. This is a bit like Marjah. The strategy adopted is one of “clear, hold and build.” If you can't hold and build then you are waging an attritional strategy of "clear, clear, clear" until the insurgents are bleed white.

Who will crack first? The strategy for Af-Pak was supposed to be a classical counterinsurgency based strategy. It looks as if we have got ourselves into a war of attrition to me.

The Pakistan army is clearing, but according to the RAND report it is not so good at holding and building. You can't blame the Pakistan army for this. The cash strapped Government in Pakistan probably doesn't have the resources to both destroy the border areas and then rebuild them. Don't forget that Team Obama early on took to calling the Afghan theatre as Af-Pak. Strategic planners in Washington surely would be reading the conclusions of this RAND Corp study with deep concern.

Here in Australia I wonder for how long the Government will stomach a war of attrition. I think Canberra bought the McChrystal-Obama counterinsurgency strategy. But if Australia is finding itself in the middle of a war of attrition then maybe this might prompt a strategic rethink in Canberra.