Russia’s Strategic Doctrine and the Expansion in the Scope of Nuclear Deterrence
There are many nuclear policy documents and recommendations circulating around. As we approach the 2010 NPT Review Conference more will appear.
Of all these, only two will matter. Those being the US Nuclear Posture Review and Russia's Strategic Doctrine.
The rest is for children.
Today we have learnt a little bit more about the Russian Strategic Doctrine. According to a report in Russia Today
...The number of military threats listed in the document has also been enlarged, according to the 17-page draft document. Those will include other nation’s ignoring of Russia’s strategic security interests, attempts to tip the balance of power in the neighborhood of Russia and her allies, and moves to change the balance in “nuclear and missile sphere”, like deployment of an anti-ballistic missile system.
Also on the threats list is interference with Russia’s internal policies, territorial disputes, arms race and undermining of international measures on arms limitation and reduction, possible deployment of weapons in space, and military conflicts near Russian borders...
Russia appears to be expanding the scope of nuclear deterrence. This, in my opinion, is big news for it appears that the Obama NPR will do the same, in the sense that it appears that it will codify Bush era nuclear strategy on the deterrence of nuclear terrorism. Perhaps it will also ratify tailored deterrence, which conceptually can cover anything.
The world's two leading nuclear powers, to repeat, are expanding the scope of deterrence whilst they are engaged in an arms control process that will lead to a cut in the number of operational nuclear wearheads.
Hardly anybody is looking at the implications that mutual expansion in the scope of deterrence will have on strategic stability. This must be a focus for research by analysts.
Now a report by Global Security Newswire has a quote from the Commander in Chief of Russia's Strategic Rocket Forces, General Andrei Shvaichenko, on the up-coming strategic doctrine
..."(Today) one must take into account the occurring geopolitical and geostrategic changes that are not in Russia's favor," the officer said. "In the future, it cannot be ruled out that Russia, being a nation with unlimited natural reserves and resources could become a target of a large-scale military aggression"...
The timing is interesting, for me anyway, because I have just finished reading Marshall Goldman's book on the Russian economy. It's called Petrostate: Putin, Power and the New Russia. We might remember the statement from the Kremlin following the resumption of Russian strategic bomber patrols that the security of energy trade routes played a role in the decision and the manner in which the patrols are to be conducted.
It seems to me, although I cannot be certain, that Russia might adopt a graduated deterrence type nuclear strategy in order to buttress deterrence in the context of energy security.
Which has me thinking. We know that China is concerned about energy security, a concern that can only grow as it further develops. We know that China adopts a minimum form of nuclear deterrence. It would not surprise me that if China does move toward a more robust US and Russian style conception of nuclear deterrence in the future energy security would have something to do with it.
What about India?
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Marko is also interested in philosophy, especially the theory of knowledge, and science, especially physics, and considers himself to work within the naturalist and enlightenment tradition. He is writing a book on nuclear terrorism.